行业间要素错配、对外贸易与中国实际GDP变动

Inter-sectoral Factor Misallocation,International Trade and China’s Real GDP Adjustments

本文在开放经济视角下考察国内行业间要素错配与国际贸易成本变动对中国经济的影响。理论机制分析表明,生产要素错配通过贸易比例、产值结构和要素价格渠道作用于实际GDP变动。结合2000—2014年跨国跨行业要素报酬与产品贸易数据,本文估算结果显示:(1)中国的行业间劳动力错配状况有所改善。对应于这一改善,中国实际GDP年均增长率提高0.47%。若2014年劳动力错配参数降至高收入国家的均值水平,则中国实际GDP年均增速将提高0.81%。(2)行业间要素配置效率提升与贸易自由化对实际GDP的影响存在互补效应。若同时考虑上述期间劳动力错配状况改善和贸易成本下降的影响,则中国实际GDP年均增速将提高1.07%。(3)行业间要素配置效率提升有助于减弱国际贸易不利冲击的负面影响。以中美贸易摩擦为例,虽然上述冲击使得中国实际GDP下降0.37%-0.60%,但是通过改善行业间劳动力错配状况,中国实际GDP仍将增加1.25%-3.50%。(4)跨国分工和行业间价值链机制放大了贸易自由化与劳动力配置效率提升对实际GDP的促进作用,而资本等生产要素的错配则会抑制二者对实际GDP的促进作用。本文基于跨国数据的对比分析和效应估算揭示了要素市场化配置改革对提高中国经济增长潜力的重要意义,并在外贸不利背景下为政府实现高质量发展提供了研究参考。

As China transits its economy to the new stage of high-quality development in recent years,the economic environments for growth are rapidly changing.Domestically,the problem of factor misallocation,one of the key hurdles for the growth of Chinese economy,has yet to be resolved.Meanwhile,due to the slowing-down of globalization and world trade growth,China is increasingly facing negative international trade shocks.How can we evaluate the aggregate impacts of domestic factor market reform and international trade cost changes on the growth of China’s real GDP?Is it likely that domestic policies that increase factor allocation efficiency help alleviate the impacts of negative trade shocks?To what extent does domestic misallocation matter for the growth of Chinese economy in a globalized world?To answer these questions,we evaluate the impacts of inter-sectoral factor misallocation and trade cost changes on China’s real GDP,using a quantitative framework with international trade and input-output linkages across sectors.We start with a simplified two-country two-sector trade model where countries differ in the degree of domestic misallocation of production factors.We prove that in the open economy,changes in the extent of inter-sectoral factor misallocation affect a country’s real income via three channels:(1)changes in factor prices(which affect the terms of trade),(2)changes in the shares of expenditure on domestic goods(which affect the sectoral product price),and(3)changes in the sectoral composition of production(which affect the pattern of industrial specialization).Based upon these theoretical results,we quantitatively evaluate how inter-sectoral factor misallocation and trade cost changes affect China’s real GDP changes.We calibrate the parameters of inter-sectoral factor misallocation using the World Input-Output Database(WIOD)and its Socio-Economic Accounts(SEA)from 2000 to 2014.The calibrated results show that the degrees of inter-sectoral labor misallocation have been gradually decreased in China over the years.This result could be explained by the reforms of state-owned enterprises and the relaxation of hukou restrictions,both of which promote labor reallocation through the market mechanism.Meanwhile,compared with other high-income countries,the parameters of China’s factor misallocation are significantly large in values,which imply that policy reforms that reduce distortions in the factor allocation could be beneficial for China in the future.Our quantitative exercises indicate that between 2000 and 2014,the reduction in inter-sectoral factor misallocation raises China’s annual real GDP growth by 0.47%.If the parameter of factor misallocation decreases to the average of high-income countries in 2014,then the annual growth rate of China’s real GDP will increase by 0.81%during the same period.We also estimate the changes in trade costs from the observed data of trade flows and import tariffs between 2000 and 2014.The results indicate that the annual growth rate of China’s real GDP will further increase by 1.07%if we simultaneously reduce international trade costs and inter-sectoral factor misallocation within China.Trade liberalization therefore magnifies the impacts of reductions in domestic factor misallocation.Similarly,in the context of trade tensions between China and the US,we show that while US tariff hikes decrease China’s real GDP by about 0.37%-0.60%,further reductions in domestic inter-sectoral factor misallocation will increase China’s real GDP by about 1.25%-3.50%.Thus,an improvement in the efficiency of domestic factor allocation helps alleviate the negative impacts of US trade shocks.Finally,sectoral input-output linkages are quantitatively important for the aggregate impacts of factor misallocation and trade cost changes as well.The contribution of this paper is as follows.First,we theoretically investigate the general equilibrium effects of inter-sectoral factor misallocation in an open economy model.Second,we compare the differences in factor misallocation between China and the other WIOD countries,across both years and sectors.Third,based on the calibrated model,we quantitatively evaluate the importance of domestic factor market reforms for China’s economic growth through the trade channel.