陕西省主要气象灾害对农业经济增长的影响分析

Analysis of major meteorological disaster on agricultural economic growth in Shanxi

为了探究在农业技术进步不断提高的前提下,陕西省气象灾害对农业经济增长的影响,通过分析陕西省1978—2018年旱灾、水灾、风雹和冷冻受灾面积、农业总产值等相关数据,利用灰色关联分析这四种气象灾害对农业总产值增长率的影响,结果显示:旱灾、水灾、风雹灾、冷冻灾这4类灾害与农业经济增长的关联度分别为0.6298、0.5565、0.4761、0.4833,并以农业经济增长率波动情况划分为1978—1990年、1991—2005年、2006—2018年三个阶段并进行具体分析,均得出水旱灾害是影响农业经济增长的主要消极因素。

In order to explore the impact of meteorological disasters on agricultural economic growth in Shanxi on the premise of continuous improvement in agricultural technology,based on the analysis of drought,flood,wind and hail disaster area and total agricultural output value in 1978-2018 in Shanxi,the grey correlation analysis was used to analyze the impact of these four meteorological disasters on the growth rate of agricultural output value.The results show that the correlation degree between drought,flood,wind and hail disaster and freezing disaster and agricultural economic growth is 0.6298,0.5565,0.4761 and 0.4833 respectively.According to the fluctuation of agricultural economic growth rate,it is divided into three stages:1978-1990,1991-2005 and 2006-2018.It is concluded that flood and drought disasters are the main negative factors affecting agricultural economic growth.