中国市际流动人口居留意愿网络特征分析

Network Characteristics and Spatial Organization of Settlement Intention of Floating Migrants in China:Perspective of Inter-city Migration

现存的关于中国流动人口迁移意愿网络的研究主要集中在对省际尺度流动人口户籍迁移意愿的讨论,缺乏对市际尺度流动人口居留意愿的关注。基于2017年流动人口动态监测数据,在市际尺度上构建流动人口居留意愿网络,探究市际流动人口居留意愿网络的特征及空间组织。研究发现:(1)高值流动人口居留意愿流主要由我国内陆相对欠发达城市指向等级高、规模大的一线城市;居留意愿入强度和出强度呈现出不同的空间格局,京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大城市群具有更高的居留意愿入强度,而中部地区和西部地区呈现出两个居留意愿出强度高值区。(2)市际流动人口居留意愿网络呈现出复杂网络的"小世界"特性,各城市节点呈现层级分布特征,被概括为一类城市节点、二类城市节点、三类城市节点、四类城市节点和五类城市节点。(3)居留意愿网络被划分为上海社团、京津社团、渝泉社团、华南社团和西北社团:上海社团以上海及长三角城市群为入强度核心,辐射安徽、贵州等地的城市;京津社团以北京和天津为入强度双核心,辐射东北及华北等地的城市;渝泉社团以泉州及海峡西岸城市群为入强度核心,以成渝城市群为出强度核心;华南社团以广州、深圳、佛山、东莞为入强度多核心,辐射湖南、广西等地的城市;西北社团主要覆盖西北地区城市,但并未呈现出明显的核心。

Existing research on the migration intention network of the floating population mainly focuses on the Hukou transfer intention of the interprovincial floating population in China, which lacks attention on the floating population’s settlement intention at inter-city scale. Based on data from China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,this article constructs the network of floating population settlement intention on the inter-city scale and explores the characteristics and spatial organization of settlement intention of the inter-city floating population through geographic visualisation analysis and social network analysis. This study comes to the following conclusions: 1) The high-value floating population’s settlement intention flows are mainly from relatively underdeveloped cities in mainland of China to a first-tier cities in the east of China. The degree of move-in and move-out of settlement intention show different spatial patterns. The higher degree of move-in of settlement intention distributes in three major urban agglomerations: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the higher degree of move-out distributes in the central and western regions. 2) The settlement intention of inter-city floating population presents the "small world" characteristics of complex networks. Each city node presents the feature of hierarchical distribution,summarized as five types of city nodes--a national central city node, a national important city node, a regionally important city node, a general city node and a sub-city node. 3) The settlement intention network is divided into Shanghai community, Beijing-Tianjin community, Chongqing-Quanzhou community, South China community, and Northwest community. Shanghai community takes Shanghai and the YangtzeRiver Delta urban agglomeration as the core of move-in degree of settlement intention and radiates to cities in Henan,Guizhou. Beijing-Tianjin community takes Beijing and Tianjin as the dual-core of move-in degree of settlement intention and radiate to cities in Northeast and North China,etc. Chongqing-Quanzhou community takes Quanzhou and the Western Taiwan Straits as the core of move-in degree of settlement intention and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as the core of move-out degree of settlement intention. South China community comprises Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan as multiple cores of move-in degree of settlement intention and radiates to cities such as Hunan and Guangxi.Northwest community mainly covers cities in the northwest region,but does not show a significant core.