平流层飞艇可靠性指标论证方法研究

Study on Method of Demonstration Reliability Index for Stratospheric Airship

针对平流层飞艇目前处于技术探索阶段,其可靠性指标无经验值可参考,且可靠性指标论证缺乏科学方法指导的现状,为满足工程研制实际的需要,提出了一套基于工程实际的论证方法。依据可靠性指标论证原则,从论证依据和收集分析信息的确定、参数确定、指标确定、指标权衡、指标技术可行性分析等方面介绍了平流层飞艇可靠性指标论证的程序和方法。以某平流层飞艇项目为例,在考虑经费和研制时间的影响下,按照提出的论证程序和方法,确定了某平流层飞艇项目的可靠性参数及定量指标,验证了平流层飞艇可靠性指标论证方法的可行性。

In view of the current situation that stratospheric airship is currently in the technological exploration stage,its reliability index has no empirical value to refer,and the reliability index demonstrates the lack of scientific method guidance.In order to meet the actual needs of engineering development,a set of demonstration method based on engineering is proposed.Based on the principle of reliability index demonstration,this paper introduces the procedure and method of reliability index demonstration of stratospheric airship from the aspects of proof basis and collecting and analyzing information,determination of parameters,determination of reliability index,trade off of indexes,technical feasibility analysis of indexes and so on.Finally,taking a stratospheric airship project as an example,considering the influence of funds and development time,according to the proposed demonstration procedures and methods,the reliability parameter and quantitative index of a stratospheric airship project is determined,and the feasibility of the demonstration method of stratospheric airship reliability index is verified.