淮海地区历史洪水灾害时空变化研究

Temporal and spatial variation of historical flood disasters in Huaihai area

淮海地区拥有淮河、废黄河、沂沭泗河等水系,处于南北气候过渡带,降水年际变化和季节变化大,人类活动剧烈,洪水灾害频发且影响严重.通过整理近2000年来淮海地区洪水灾害记录的历史文献资料,并结合前人的研究成果,对淮海地区几条重要河流的洪水灾害时空变化进行统计分析,探讨人类活动和气候变化对该地区洪水灾害的影响.结果显示:淮海地区洪水事件频率整体呈波动递增趋势,以明清时期为界,其之前洪水发生频率较低,之后则明显增多;淮海地区洪水灾害受降水的影响强烈,洪水灾害主要集中在夏秋季;黄河下游的河道变迁是导致淮海地区洪水灾害频发的重要原因;气候冷暖波动剧烈期和冷期时洪水灾害易频发;明代以后人类活动成为洪水灾害的重要诱发因素.

River system in the Huaihai area,located in the north-south climate transition zone,mainly include Huai River,abandoned Yellow River,Yihe River,Shuhe River,Sihe River,etc.With greatly annual and season precipitation changes and intensity human activities,flood disasters occur frequently.Based on the historical documents of flood disasters in Huaihai area over the past 2000 years,the temporal and spatial changes of flood disasters in Huaihai area,and the relationship between human activities and climate change and flood disasters in this area are studied in this paper.The results show that the frequency of flood events in Huaihai area showed an increasing trend,and the frequency of floods significantly increased since the Ming and Qing Dynasties.The flood disasters in Huaihai area were strongly associated with heavy precipitation and mainly occurred in summer and autumn.The river course changes in the lower Yellow River were the important reasons for the frequent occurrence of flood disasters in this area.Flood disasters mainly occured in the climate fluctuation period and climate cooling period.Flood disasters also closely related to human activities,especially since the Ming Dynasty.