纳入资产价格的我国通货膨胀研究

The Research on China’s Inflation Incorporated Into Asset Prices

传统通胀指标包含的物价水平信息有限。资产价格的变化会影响通货膨胀。在考虑了房地.产、股票、大宗商品价格等因素后,新的通货膨胀指数能更加全面准确地反映真实的通货膨胀水平。我国的新通货膨胀指数在数值和波动性两方面均高于传统CPI水平,并在未来两年内可能会出现稳中有降的趋势。因此,需要重视资产价格对通货膨胀的影响,探索构建新的通货膨胀指数,提高货币政策前瞻性。

The traditional inflation indicator contains limited information about the price level.Changes in asset prices affect inflation.Taking into account real estate,stocks,commodity prices and other factors,the new inflation index can reflect the true level of inflation more comprehensively and accurately,which is higher than the traditional CPI in both value and volatility,and may show a trend of stabilization and decline in the next two years.Therefore,it is necessary to attach importance to the influence of asset prices on inflation,explore the construction of a new inflation index,and improve the foresight of monetary policy.