太湖地区2020年洪水先兆特征与降雨预测模拟研究

Study on precursory characteristics of flood in 2020 and simulation of rainfall forecast in Taihu Lake Region

以单要素年际序列分析为基础,采用多种方法对太湖地区2020年洪水的先兆特征进行总结,基本摸清了太湖地区旱涝转换的规律。研究表明,通过成因、频率和相似年景对比分析,可以从宏观上找到暴雨洪水发生的理论依据;通过历史演变法、分段法和细部特征法的研究,可以从无锡站年际降雨序列的微观变化中准确把握太湖地区2020年降雨大幅增长的趋势和数值预测的范围;太湖流域的气候与长江中下游地区基本同步,气候突变和非典型旱涝周期的研究,可以提升气候预测水平。

Based on single factor inter-annual sequence analysis,precursory characteristics of floods in the Taihu Lake region in 2020 were summarized by various methods,and the law of drought-flood transition in the Taihu Lake region was basically understood.The results showed that theoretical basis of rainstorm flood could be found through the comparative analysis of cause,frequency and similar years.Through the study of historical evolution method,segment method and detailed characteristic method,the trend of significant increase in rainfall in 2020 in the Taihu Lake area and the scope of numerical prediction could be grasped from the micro-changes of inter-annual rainfall series at Wuxi Station.The climate in the Taihu Basin was basically synchronous with that in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.The study of climate mutation and atypical drought and flood cycles could improve the level of climate prediction.