基于SFA模型的佛山市TFP增长率测算及分析

Measurement and analysis of Foshan TFP growth rate based on SFA model

通过构建基于超越对数生产函数的随机边界模型,同时结合全要素生产率(TFP)增长率分解法测算改革开放以来佛山市的TFP增长率,进一步对佛山市1979年~2018年经济增长的基本动力构成、动力转换规律以及影响TFP增长率变动的内在动因结构进行分析,结果发现,改革开放以来佛山市的经济增长由资本投入主导,TFP对经济增长率的贡献率较低;“十二五”至“十三五”时期,资本投入保持高贡献率,而TFP贡献率呈现下降趋势;2008年以来资源配置效率和技术进步分别对TFP增长率变动起到主要的正向拉动作用和负向拉动作用,技术效率与规模经济效应对经济增长的贡献保持较为平稳的波动。未来佛山要提高全要素生产率,应从以下几个方面着手:第一,优化投资结构,引导资金投向基础设施和民生建设领域的短板环节;第二,加大创新投入,提高创新对经济增长的贡献;第三,加大人力资本的投入,不断提高高素质劳动力的比例;第四,转换经济增长方式,持续提高投入的效率。

This paper constructs a stochastic boundary model based on the transcendental logarithmic production function,and calculates the TFP growth rate of Foshan City since the reform and opening up by combining with the TFP growth rate decomposition method.It further analyzes the basic power composition,power conversion law and the internal motivation structure of the TFP growth rate change of Foshan City from 1979 to 2018.The results show that the economic growth of Foshan City is dominated by capital investment and the TFP contribution rate to the economic growth rate is relatively low;during the period from the 12th five-year plan to the 13th five-year plan period,the contribution rate of capital investment remains high,while the contribution rate of TFP presents a downward trend;since 2008,resource allocation efficiency and technological progress have played a major positive and negative role in TFP growth rate changes,and the contribution of technological efficiency and economies of scale to economic growth has remained relatively stable.In order to improve the total factor productivity in Foshan in the future,first,efforts should be made to optimize the investment structure and guide the funds to invest in the short board links in the fields of infrastructure and people’s livelihood construction;second,increase investment in innovation and improve the contribution of innovation to economic growth;third,increase the input of human capital and constantly improve the proportion of high-quality labor force;fourth,transform the mode of economic growth and continuously improve the efficiency of investment.