不确定因素下考虑经济与福利均衡的电源结构优化

Power Structure Optimization Considering Economic and Welfare Equilibrium Under Uncertain Factors

为规避电源建设的盲目性,适应大规模可再生电源发展的愿景,提升能源利用效率,以传统电源规划模型为基础,考虑多种不确定性,引入社会福利测算理论,提出了考虑经济与福利均衡的风光火电源优化配置方案。以已投产运行的天中±800 kV直流工程的供端配套电源为例对此方案进行优化,并构建了相应的优化模型。将此低碳背景下电源结构优化模型应用于该输电外送通道,进行算例分析,以验证优化模型的实践性和有效性。结果表明所提规划模型在有效计及不确定因素对目标函数的影响同时,能实现可再生能源的最优利用。未来宏观政策上应积极推动清洁能源高效有序发展,不断优化新能源建设规模与布局,其次,努力提升能源优化配置带来的社会福利,实现能源领域经济与福利的有效均衡。

To avoid the blindness of power construction and to adapt the vision of large-scale renewable energy source development and to improve utilization efficiency of energy source,based on traditional power source planning model and considering multi uncertainty as well as bringing in social welfare measuring and calculation theory,a wind-photovoltaic-thermal power source optimization configuration scheme,in which the economic and welfare equilibrium was taken into account,was proposed,then a corresponding model was constructed.Taking the matching power source at the supply side for transmission channel in Tianzhong±800 kV HVDC transmission project,which had been put into operation,for example,the proposed scheme was optimized and a corresponding optimization model was constructed.The constructed power source optimization model under the low-carbon background was applied to the outwards transmission channel of Tianzhong project to conduct the analysis on example to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the optimized model.Verification results show that the constructed planning model can effectively consider the influence of uncertain factors on the objective function,at the same time,the optimal utilization of renewable energy sources can be implemented.In the future,firstly,the macropolicy should actively promote the efficient and ordered development of clean energy and unceasingly optimize the scale and layout of new energy sources,secondly,make effort to improve social welfare brought by energy source optimal configuration and to implement the effective equilibrium of economy development and welfare in energy source field.