基于抖音平台的在线短视频流行度建模研究

Modeling Dynamics of Online Short Video Popularity Based on Douyin Platform

该文分析了“抖音”短视频平台上近1000条短视频播放量的演变模式,由统计规律发现短视频的播放量累计曲线存在两种时变模式——单梯度和多梯度传播模式;为进一步探究不同传播模式产生的原因,该文分析了用户点赞行为和评论情感倾向与播放量的相关性,发现用户的点赞行为会带来短视频进一步的传播,且负向情感评论比例越高,播放量越大。最后,该文基于平台推荐观看和用户粉丝观看这两个主要传播途径,结合点赞促进传播这一特征,构建了在线短视频的点赞−传播动力学模型,复现了实际数据的短视频流行模式,并进一步借助模型探索了不同参数对累计播放量演变趋势的影响,从而揭示了在线短视频的传播机制。研究结果为更有效地促进或控制信息传播提供了理论支撑。

This article analyzes the evolution mode of video view counts of nearly 1000 short videos from“Douyin”platform.According to the statistical law,it is found that there are two time-varying patterns of cumulative short video view counts,namely single gradient and multi-gradient propagation modes.In order to explore the reasons for different propagation modes,this article analyzes the correlation among user’s liking behavior,the emotional tendency of comments and the view counts.It is found that the user's liking behavior will lead to further dissemination of short videos,and the higher the proportion of negative emotional comments is,the larger the view counts of short videos are.Finally,based on the two main spreading ways-passive viewing from recommendation of“Douyin”and active viewing from fans,and taking into account the feature that liking promotes the view counts,this article constructs an online short video liking-spreading dynamics model,which reproduces the evolution patterns of view counts of online short videos well,and the influence of different parameters on the evolution patterns of view counts are explored through the model simulation.In a word,this article reveals the spreading mechanism of online short videos and provides theoretical support for making more effective strategies for information promotion or control.