我国人口—经济—教育城镇化的时空演变特征分析

An Analysis of the Characteristics of the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the Urbanization of Population,Economy and Education in our Country

城镇化是经济增长、人口集中和教育融合等多方面因素共同影响、持续推进的过程,只有各子系统协同发展,各区域统筹规划,才能达到城镇化高质量、可持续发展的目标。研究基于耦合协调度模型,利用中国1987~2018年省级面板数据探究全国“三化”耦合协调度的时空演变特征,并检验各区域“三化”的自相关性。研究结果表明:(1)全国总体表现为高水平的良性耦合协调态势;(2)长期以来,经济发展作为首发动力推动人口和教育城镇化提升。对此,应以内部结构优化为主,在巩固现有支柱产业的同时,消除城乡流动障碍,解决随迁子女的教育问题,发挥出人力资本对高质量城镇化建设的核心作用。

Urbanization is a process in which economic growth,population concentration,and educational integration jointly function and continuously advance.Only by the coordinated development of various subsystems and the overall planning for various regions can the goal of high-quality and sustainable development of urbanization be achieved.Based on the coupling coordination degree model,this paper uses China's provincial data during 1987-2018 to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution of the coupling coordination degree of the“three urbanizations”at national level,and examine the auto correlation of the“three urbanizations”in each region.The research results show that:①At the national level,it takes on a tendency of high-level benign coupling and coordination;②For a long time,economic development has been the first driving force to promote the urbanization of population and education.In view of the results,we should focus on optimizing the internal structure.While consolidating the existing pillar industries,we should eliminate barriers to urban-rural mobility,solve the education problem of children of migrate workers,and give play to the core role of human capital in the construction of high-quality urbanization.