经常账户余额对房地产价格的影响:基于跨国数据的研究

Influence of Current Account Balance on Real Estate Price:Based on Transnational Data

在开放经济条件下,一国的房地产价格很可能会受到国际经济因素的影响。在已有研究的基础上,发展一个理论模型以说明国际贸易中的经常账户余额影响房地产价格的机制。理论模型预测,在开放经济条件下一国的房价受到经常账户余额、购房家庭数量、家庭收入、家庭财富和通货膨胀率等因素的正向影响,受到实际利率和风险溢价的负向影响。在此基础上,建立计量经济模型,利用亚洲、欧洲、南美洲64个国家2000—2019年的年度数据实证分析经常账户余额对房地产价格的影响。研究结果显示:第一,全部样本国家的实证分析结果符合理论预期,经常账户余额与房地产价格正相关,与其他国家相比,我国的经常账户余额对于房地产价格具有更强的推动作用;第二,从地域差别的角度来看,亚洲和欧洲国家的经常账户余额对房地产价格具有正向影响,但南美洲国家的经常账户余额对房地产价格的影响不显著;第三,从经济发展水平的角度来看,无论是高收入国家还是中低收入国家,经常账户余额的变化对房地产价格的正向影响都是非常显著的。

The real estate price of a country is likely to be affected by international economic factors under the condition of an open economy.Based on the existing research,this study develops a theoretical model to explain the mechanism of the current account balance in international trade affecting the real estate price.The theoretical model predicts that under the condition of an open economy,the house price of a country is positively affected by the current account balance,the number of families buying houses,family income,family wealth and inflation rate,and is negatively affected by the real interest rate and risk premium.On such a basis,an econometric model is established to empirically analyze the impact of current account balance on real estate price by adopting the annual data of 64 countries in Asia,Europe and South America from 2000 to 2019.The results show that a.The empirical analysis results of all sample countries are in line with the theoretical expectation,and the current account balance is positively correlated with the real estate price;and compared with other countries,China current account balance has a stronger role in promoting real estate prices;b.From the perspective of regional difference,the current account balance of Asian and European countries has a positive impact on real estate price while that of South American countries has no significant impact on real estate price;and c.From the perspective of economic development level,the change of current account balance has a significant positive impact on real estate price,whether in high-income countries or in low-or middle-income countries.