数字普惠金融风险测度及跨系统传染机制研究

Risk Measurement and Cross-system Contagion Mechanism of Digital Inclusive Finance

选取涵盖运行平台、数字金融、普惠金融和衍生风险四个维度的指标体系,通过熵值法赋权构建数字普惠金融风险指数,测度2016—2019年我国数字普惠金融风险大小,并在此基础上深入分析数字普惠金融风险的跨系统传染机制和路径。研究结果表明,我国数字普惠金融风险整体呈现先下降后上升的态势,其中,运行平台风险和数字金融风险较为突出,普惠金融风险总体缓慢平稳上升,数字普惠金融衍生风险水平相对较低。数字普惠金融风险的跨系统传染机制,主要表现为数字技术系统向金融系统和消费者系统风险传递、金融系统向消费者系统风险传递,以及监管系统向其他系统的风险传递。应通过规范运行平台、提高数字技术水平和信息防护意识、加强征信建设、完善长尾市场金融体系建设和金融监管机制等措施,有效防范数字普惠金融风险的跨系统传染。

By selecting the index system covering the four dimensions of operation platform,digital finance,inclusive finance and derivative risk and by using entropy weighting,this study constructs the risk index of digital inclusive finance,measures the risk of digital inclusive finance in China from 2016 to 2019,and deeply analyzes the cross-system contagion mechanism and route of digital inclusive finance risk.The results show that the overall risk of digital inclusive finance in China presents a downward trend firstly and then an upward trend,among which the risk of operation platform and digital finance are more prominent,the risk of inclusive finance rises slowly and steadily,and the level of derivative risk of digital inclusive finance is relatively low.The cross-system contagion mechanism of digital inclusive financial risk is mainly manifested in the risk transfer from digital technology system to financial system and consumer system,the risk transfer from financial system to consumer system,and the risk transfer from regulatory system to other systems.Therefore,the cross-system contagion of digital inclusive financial risk should be effectively prevented by standardizing the operation platform,improving the level of digital technology and the awareness of information protection,strengthening the construction of credit reference,perfecting the construction of long-tail market financial system and financial supervision mechanism.