风险如何影响政策扩散?--以环境信息公开为例

How does Risk Affect Policy Diffusion?-Environmental Information Disclosure As an Example

当前有关政策扩散的研究多从府际关系与激励机制展开讨论,但是,为什么面对同样关系函数、激励函数的地方政府在对待同一政策时仍然表现出较大的行为差异?本文从现行体制的目标冲突与对维持稳定的刚性需求出发,将地方政府采纳政策时所面临的潜在风险作为核心解释变量,建立“风险约束政策扩散”的逻辑框架。以环境信息公开制度为例,将地方政府采纳政策的风险划分为经济风险与政治风险。收集294个地级市在2008—2018年间的面板数据,使用事件史模型检验了经济风险、政治风险、强制压力和信息化水平对环境信息公开制度扩散的作用机制,所提假设全部通过。研究证实了风险变量对弱激励型政策扩散的约束作用,对进一步认识和理解政策扩散过程的复杂性具有理论与实践意义。

Previous studies discussed the policy diffusion from the perspectives of inter-governmental relations and incentive mechanism.There remains a puzzle as why local governments,facing the same inter-governmental relations and incentive mechanism,take different actions to an identical policy.Starting from the goal conflict of the system and the rigid demand for stability,this paper takes the risks faced by local governments when adopting policies as the core explanatory variables,and establishes a logical framework of“risk negatively affect policy diffusion”.This article takes the environmental information publicity regulations as an example,establishes a database including 294 cities across China from 2008 to 2018.The event history model is used to test the mechanism of policy diffusion.The study finds that economic risk,political risk,coercive,informatization are important mechanisms in affecting the policy diffusion.The research tests the applicability of the risk mechanism to policy diffusion,which has theoretical and practical significance for further understanding the complexity of the policy diffusion process.