外部性对电力系统优化的影响研究

Research on the Impacts of Externality on Power System Optimization

文章基于中国电网区域的划分,利用MESSAGEix模型框架,构建了一个多区域的中国电力系统优化模型。在对各区域不同发电技术的外部成本进行核算的基础上,通过不同情景下电力系统优化结果的对比,分析了外部性对中国中长期视角下电力系统优化的影响。结果表明,考虑外部成本的情景下,中国电力系统结构进一步优化。考虑外部成本能够有效促进清洁发电技术(风电、太阳能发电和核电)的发展。同时,先进煤电技术,如IGCC取得了更广泛的应用。另一方面,西北区域在电力供给中的优势更加明显,区域间电力输送显著增加。最后,建议制定合理的外部成本内部化方案,以促进电力结构调整和空间布局优化,以及非化石能源发展目标的实现。同时,在制定区域电力发展规划时应因地制宜,充分考虑区间的差异。

In this paper,a multi-regional optimization model for China's power system is built using MESSAGEix model,based on the division of the power grid.On the basis of accounting the external cost of various power generation technologies in different regions,the whole system is optimized under different scenarios to analyze the effects of externality on China's power system under a medium and long-term perspective.The model results show that when the external cost is considered,China's power system structure is further opti-mized.Considering the externality could result in promoting the development of clean power generation technologies(wind power,solar power,and nuclear power).At the same time,advanced coal-fired power technology,such as IGCC is more widely used.Furthermore,the northwest region has significant advantages in power supply,and the inter-regional power transmission has increased significantly.Finally,it is suggested that a reasonable scheme for internalization of the external cost should be formulated to promote the adjustment of the power structure and the optimization of spatial layout,as well as the realization of non-fossil energy development goals.At the same time,local conditions and the differences between regions should be fully considered when formulating the regional power development plan.