灰色模型於建筑施工安全之趋势分析

Applying Gray Model to Analyze the Trend of Working Safety in Construction

随着我国经济的高速发展,建筑业所占国民经济的比重也越来越大,减少安全事故是建筑企业应尽的社会责任,而如何有效预防事故的发生,首先可从历年数据发展来分析与预测,通过科学化数据趋势来提出因应措施。研究采取灰色系统预测法,收集中华人民共和国住建部公布的建2008-2018年建筑业施工事故数据进行预测模型的建立,以了解施工坠落事故的发展趋势与提出在工作环境、组织管理和社会政策环境三面向的建议。

With the rapid economic development,the construction industry accounts for an increasing proportion of the national economy.It is the social responsibility for construction companies to reduce working accidents.How to effectively prevent accidents can be analyzed first from the development of data over the years and then forecast and propose relevant countermeasures scientifically through data trends.The study adopts the gray system to establish a prediction model with collecting the accident data in construction from 2008 to 2018 published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China to understand the development trend in the field of fall accident.The research will put forward three facets of the recommendations on working environment,organization management and social policies.