人口老龄化对居民消费价格指数的影响——基于安徽省2001—2019年数据的实证分析

Impact of Population Aging on Consumer Price Index:an Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Anhui Province from 2001 to 2019

基于安徽省2001—2019年相关数据,运用VAR模型分析人口老龄化与居民消费的动态影响。研究结果表明:随着人口老龄化加剧,居民消费结构发生转变,人口老龄化对衣着、医疗保健、日常生活用品消费结构具有较大影响;人口老龄化系数对居民消费价格指数有显著影响;居民消费价格指数对人口老龄化系数和老年人口抚养比有显著影响。为此,应深入推进供给侧改革,大力发展适应居民消费需求的产业体系;实施城乡二元化政策,缩小农村和城市地区贫富差距;积极发展银发市场,促进老年人消费;完善社会养老服务体系,加快推进医疗保障建设。

On the basis of the relevant data of Anhui Province from 2001 to 2019,the VAR model is used to analyze the dynamic impact of population aging and resident consumption.The results show as follows:as the population aging intensifies,the structure of household consumption has changed.The population aging has a great impact on the consumption structure of clothing,medical care,and daily necessities;the index of population aging has a significant impact on consumer price index;the consumer price index has a significant impact on the index of population aging and old-age dependency rate.Therefore,it is necessary to deepen the supply-side reform and vigorously develop an industrial system that meets needs of household consumption,to implement the urban-rural-dualization policy to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor in rural and urban areas,to actively develop the silver market to promote consumption by the elderly,and to improve the social service system for the elderly to accelerate the construction of medical security.