重大突发事件的情景图谱构建

Construction of Scenario Graph for a Major Emergency

以事件为中心构建重大突发事件情景图谱,不仅能描述情景要素的状态,还能反映重大突发事件的发展趋势。因此,本文提出了一种构建重大突发事件情景图谱的方法。首先,分析影响事件发生、发展和突变的要素,并深入探讨要素之间的内在联系,从而构建情景模型,用于描述要素状态及要素之间的联系;其次,在情景模型的指导下,构建上层情景本体,并提出一种利用深度学习构建下层情景本体的方法;最后,提出情景图谱的构建流程,通过事件及事件关系抽取,构建旱灾情景本体,并对情景本体进行实例化,构建2007年吉林省特大旱灾情景图谱。研究结果表明,本文构建的情景图谱不仅能够描述重大突发事件当前的发展状态,还能够解释事件发展与演变的内在动因,预测事件未来的发展趋势。

The event-centered construction of a major-emergency scenario graph can not only describe the state of the scenario elements but also reflect the development trend of major emergencies;therefore,we propose a method for constructing such a graph.First,we analyze the factors that affect the occurrence,development,and mutation of events;next,we explore,in-depth,the internal connections between them to build a scenario model to describe the state of these factors and connections between them.Second,under the guidance of the scenario model,we construct the upper-level scenario ontology and propose a method of using deep learning to construct a lower-level scenario ontology.Finally,we propose the process of constructing the scenario graph,construct the drought scene ontology through event extraction and event relationship extraction,and instantiate the scene ontology to establish a scene graph of the catastrophic drought in Jilin Province in 2007.The empirical results show that the scenario graph constructed in this study can not only describe the current development state of a major emergency but also explain the internal motivation of the event’s development and evolution and predict its future development trend.