基于AcciMap模型的化工事故致因定量分析方法研究

Research on quantitative analysis method for causal factors of chemical accidents based on AcciMap model

为分析化工事故致因因素间的相互关系,有效地预防和控制风险,提出了一种基于Acci Map模型的事故致因定量分析方法。首先,基于Acci Map模型定性分析事故致因;然后运用灰色DEMATEL-ISM方法对事故致因进行多级递阶层次结构划分;运用MICMAC方法计算各致因的驱动力和依赖性以划分属性类别;最后将所提出的方法运用于江苏响水"3·21"特别重大事故分析。结论与事故调查报告契合。研究表明:政府政策不当、监管机构失察、企业与第三方机构违法违规经营等是事故的核心致因因素;化工事故的防控应从企业、第三方机构和政府等方面同时进行,有效控制本质致因和过渡致因是防止系统失效的关键;灰色DEMATELISM-MICMAC方法与Acci Map模型相结合能够有效探讨事故致因的属性特征和作用规律,是Acci Map模型的有益补充。

This paper firstly proposes a new quantitative analysis method of accidents in complex social-technical systems based on the Acci Map model to analyze the mutual relationships and attribute characteristics among the causal factors of hazardous chemicals accidents and thus prevent and control risks scientifically and effectively. Firstly,for such a purpose,we qualitatively identified the main causal factors of chemical accidents from various dimensions of the Acci Map model. Secondly,grey system theory was used to improve the decision-making and evaluation laboratory( DEMATEL) method and then combined with interpretative structural modeling( ISM) to divide the hierarchical structure of the accident causal factors. Thirdly,we used the MICMAC method to calculate the driving force and dependency values of each causal factor to classify their attribute categories.Finally,we applied the proposed new method to the"3. 21"explosion accident that occurred in Xiangshui County, Jiangsu Province,China in 2019. In the typical case,we identified 16 main causal factors of the accident through each dimension of the Acci Map model and divided them into 4 categories through the MICMAC method. The analysis result is consistent with the official investigation report,it also shows that the improper policies of local government,the weak supervision of regulatory bodies,as well as the relevant enterprises’ illegal management are the key causal factors of the Xiangshui accident. Moreover,the above deduction can be made clear that the key issue to prevent similar accidents in the future is to take scientific and reasonable management measures by chemical enterprises,third-party organizations,and local governments. Besides,the targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the above three aspects. Moreover,The DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC method improved by the grey system theory can effectively reveal the influence law and attribute characteristics of accident causes,which is a useful expansion to the Acci Map model.