基于信息扩散技术的广东省台风灾害风险分析

Risk analysis of typhoon disaster in Guangdong based on the information diffusion technology

以往的灾害风险分析方法通常是根据灾情资料估计致灾因子强度的概率分布和灾害承受体的损失曲线,通过估计损失期望值来度量灾害的风险水平。采用信息扩散技术将形式化的期望模型转化为可计算的台风风险模型,使用信息分配法估计风力等级的概率密度分布,使用信息扩散法构造承受体的脆弱性函数,结合台风的发生频次预测灾害的年度风险值。以广东省为例进行台风风险分析,估计了该地区与经济、人口、作物、房屋有关的多项指标的年度灾损期望值。结果表明,采用信息扩散技术大大提高了小样本不完备信息的利用效率,评价结果合理可信,可为台风灾害的风险控制、应急管理提供一定的参考。

The present paper intends to construct an expectation model and then transform it into a typhoon risk analysis one,which can be calculated and assessed properly by using the information diffusion technology.The said technology here mentioned may include the information distribution and information diffusion.To be specific,the probability distribution of the typhoon scale here mentioned has been built up with the information distribution method,which can represent the intensity and seriousness of the disaster.And,as is known,the probabilistic risk of the natural disaster can usually be measured by coupling the probability density function of the disaster factor and the vulnerability function of the bearing body according to the recorded or registered data,i.e.the problem of the risk analysis can usually be solved by establishing a mathematical expectation model,while the vulnerability function of the bearing body can be built up by the information diffusion method.And,then,the annual risk level of typhoon disaster can usually be estimated by integrating the products of the above 2 functions.As to the annual average frequency hitting rate of typhoon disasters,they can usually be taken into account in the analysis progress,for the total loss varies with the number of disasters.Besides,as a province in China south,Guangdong can be said an area typical for typhoon risk hitting,for its annual expected losses are closely related to its total economic development income,population,farmland,and house destruction.Such disasters include specifically the direct economic loss rate,the death toll of human lives and the material loss of the affected people,the proportion of the resettled population,the area of the affected farmlands,and the number of living house collapse and breakage.Such results may also indicate that the risk analysis model built in the given study is concise and practical with a clear-cut physical background and specific risk connotation.Hence,the information diffusion technology adopted in the study can be expected to improve the utilization efficiency of the incomplete information about the small samples greatly.And,so,since the analysis results turn to be reasonable and reliable,they can help to provide certain valuable references for the typhoon risk control and emergency management in the regions mentioned above.