城乡居民基本养老保险对居民储蓄率的影响——基于预防性储蓄的视角

The Effect of China’s Basic Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents on Household Savings Rate:Based on the Perspective of Precautionary Saving

城乡居民基本养老保险是否发挥了养老保险的"财富替代效应"和"风险分担效应",对居民家庭消费和储蓄产生影响,目前还缺乏相关研究。故文章基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS2016)数据,从预防性储蓄视角,实证分析统筹之后的城乡居民基本养老保险对居民储蓄率的影响。结果表明:城乡居保显著提高了居民储蓄率;在考虑遗漏变量、自选择等内生性问题后,结论依然稳健。进一步分析表明,一方面受消费惯性的影响,居民往往倾向于将城乡居保(预期)增加的家庭收入结余下来而转化为储蓄,导致储蓄率增加;另一方面,受不确定性因素和城乡居保"低保障"水平的交互影响,居民在面对收入波动、医疗、教育和婚姻等不确定性事件时仍倾向于增加家庭储蓄。异质性分析表明,城乡居保对低收入家庭、45岁以上的参保居民以及农村家庭储蓄率提高的促进效应更大。本研究为政策制定者评估城乡居保制度对居民消费的拉动效应提供了一定的参考依据。

Whether China’s new pension insurance for urban and rural residents has exerted the"displacement effect"and"risk sharing effect"of pension insurance,thereby having an impact on household consumption and savings,there is still a lack of relevant research.This paper empirically studies the impact of China’s basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents on household savings rate from the perspective of precautionary saving by using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS2016).The results show that China’s basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents has significantly improved the household savings rate.After considering the endogenous issues such as missing variables and self-selection,this conclusion is still robust.Further research found that China’s basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents significantly increased household income,but it failed to have a significant impact on household consumption due to the influence of consumption inertia and precautionary saving motivation,such as income fluctuations,medical care,education,marriage and other uncertain events,which still lead to increase household savings rate.Heterogeneity analysis shows that China’s basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents has a greater"promotion effect"on the savings rate of low-income families,over 45 years old,and rural families.The conclusion of this paper provides a reference for policy formulation on how to exert the pulling effect of China’s basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents on residents’consumption.