基于案例决策理论的人群聚集区域公共安全应急方案选择方法

A Method for Selecting Public Security Emergency Plans in a CrowdGathered Place Based on the Case-Based Decision Theory

【目的/意义】随着经济的发展和社会的进步,人群聚集的各类活动越来越多地出现在人们的生活中。在人群聚集区域的应急管理中,选择合适的应急方案是有效实施应急管理工作的重要环节。因此,针对人群聚集区域公共安全应急方案选择问题,提出了一种基于案例决策理论的应急方案选择方法。【设计/方法】首先,对用以刻画公共安全应急问题、应急方案、应急方案实施效果的多种形式属性值进行符号描述;其次,计算各种形式属性值下的人群聚集区域公共安全应急问题的相似度和应急方案的相似度,进而得到目标案例与历史案例的相似度;然后,利用基于案例决策理论的思想,考虑到备选应急方案的成本,计算出备选应急方案的综合效用值,并根据综合效用值的大小来选择当前公共安全应急问题的应急方案;最后,通过一个算例说明了提出方法的可行性与有效性。【结论/发现】该方法具有概念清晰、计算简单等特点,为解决人群聚集区域公共安全应急方案选择问题提供了一种新的途径。

[Purpose/Significance]Along with economic development and social progress,more and more crowd gathering activities happen in our daily life,the emergency management in a crowd-gathered place has already drawn wide attention.For the problem of emergency response in a crowd-gathered place,a method for selecting public security emergency plans based on the Case-based Decision Theory(CBDT)is proposed.[Design/Methodology]First,the multiple forms of attribute values that describe the public security emergency problem,emergency plans and emergency effect of the plans are described by notations.Second,the similarities of emergency problems and emergency plans with multiple forms of attribute value are calculated,and then the similarities between the target case and historical cases are calculated.Then,based on the CBDT,considering the cost of the plans,the comprehensive utility value of the plans are calculated and the emergency plan of the current problem can be determined according to the comprehensive utility value.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.[Findings/Conclusions]The method has features of a clear concept,simple calculation and can provide a new approach for the problem of selecting public security emergency plans in a crowd-gathered place.