长江经济带城市碳达峰和分类减排路径研究

Study on peaking carbon dioxide emissions and classified carbon emissions reduction path of the cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

长江经济带城市排放集聚效应较为突出,排放量前20%的城市占长江经济带总排放量的比重达53.30%。长江经济带单位GDP碳排放强度和人均碳排放量水平优于全国平均水平,城市单位GDP碳排放强度区间为[0.34,11.76],人均碳排放区间为[1.11,41.0]。长江经济带能源相关和产业相关的碳排放是主要的碳排放来源,第二产业碳排放强度差距是造成城市碳排放强度差异的主要因素。预计长江经济带将早于全国实现碳达峰,一半以上城市将在"十四五"结束前达到峰值。将长江经济带城市分为综合低碳示范型城市、低碳产业示范型城市、低碳潜力型城市、低碳成长型城市、产业转型期城市、综合转型期城市,并分类提出碳减排路径。

The agglomeration effect of urban emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is relatively prominent,with the top 20%cities accounting for 53.30%of the total emissions.The carbon emission intensity per unit GDP and carbon emission per capita in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are better than the national average level.The carbon emission intensity per unit GDP range is[0.34,11.76],and the carbon emission per capita range is[1.11,41.0].Energy-related and industry-related carbon emissions are the main sources of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and the carbon intensity gap of the secondary industry is the main factor that causes the difference of urban carbon emission intensity.The Yangtze River Economic Belt is expected to reach its carbon emissions peaking earlier than the rest of the country,with more than half of the cities expected to reach the peaking before the end of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are classified into comprehensive low-carbon demonstration cities,low-carbon industrial demonstration cities,low-carbon potential cities,low-carbon growth cities,industrial transition cities,and comprehensive transition cities,and carbon emission reduction paths are proposed.