基于复杂网络视角的全球铜资源供应链风险研究

Research on the Supply Chain Risk of Global Copper Resources from the Perspective of Complex Network

针对铜供应链风险的识别问题,以矿山、精炼厂、股东和所属国家为节点构建复杂网络,从网络结构的角度研究供应风险。结果表明:在铜供应链数据分析中,单个国家的供应中断不会造成全球性的铜矿资源供应危机,供应链风险较低;在网络分析中,单个国家的供应波动会导致网络结构的改变,铜市场的其他参与者将不可避免承担网络结构改变所带来的风险;在供应网络中,中国缺乏能够整合全球铜资源的跨国公司;在贸易网络中,中国难以对主要资源输出国形成影响力,供应链风险较高。

Aiming at the identification of copper supply chain risk, a complex network was constructed with mines, refineries, shareholders and countries as nodes, and supply risks were studied from the perspective of network structure.The results show that in the copper supply chain data analysis, the supply interruption of a single country will not cause the global copper resources supply crisis, and the supply chain risk is low. In the network analysis, the supply fluctuation in a single country will lead to the change of network structure, and other participants in the copper market will inevitably bear the risk brought by the change of network structure. In the supply network, China lacks multinational companies that can integrate global copper resources. In the trade network, it is difficult for China to form influence on major resource exporting countries, and the supply chain risk is high.