城投债务规模对城市科技创新能力的影响及其阈值效应

The Impact of Urban Construction Investment Debt Scale on Urban Technological Innovation Ability and Its Threshold Effect

基于2011—2017年我国地市级数据,利用门限模型探讨城投债务规模与城市科技创新之间的关系。研究发现:城投债务规模与企业科技创新能力存在倒U形关系,与政府推动科技创新能力和基础设施环境创新能力存在正U形关系;城投债务规模促进城市科技创新能力提升的阈值为0.2%~2.9%;我国东、中、西部地区城投债务规模与企业科技创新能力、政府推动科技创新能力和基础设施环境创新能力之间的关系存在异质性。因此,地方政府需根据自身发展合理发行城投债,提升城市科技创新能力,防控城投债风险。

Based on China’s prefecture and city-level data from 2011 to 2017,this paper uses a Threshold Model to explore the relationship between the scale of urban investment debt and the three levels of urban technological innovation(corporate technological innovation capacity,government’s ability to promote technological innovation and infrastructure environmental innovation).The study shows that there is an"inverted U-shaped"relationship between the scale of urban investment debt and the company’s technological innovation capabilities,and a"positive U-shaped"relationship with the government’s ability to promote technological innovation and infrastructure environmental innovation.The threshold for the scale of urban investment debt to promote urban technological innovation capabilities is from 0.2%to 2.9%.The relationship among the scale of urban investment debt in the eastern,central and western regions of China,the technological innovation capabilities of enterprises,the government’s ability to promote technological innovation and the ability of infrastructure environmental innovation is heterogeneous.Therefore,local governments need to issue urban investment bonds based on their own development in order to enhance the city’s technological innovation capabilities and prevent and control urban investment debt risks.