低碳城市试点政策与全要素能源效率提升——来自三批次试点政策实施的准自然实验

Low-carbon City Pilot Policies and Total Factor Energy Efficiency Improvement: Quasi-natural Experiment from the Implementation of Three Batches of Pilot Policies

本文以2010年以来先后三批次推行的低碳城市试点政策为准自然实验,运用双重差分法考察其对中国地级及以上城市全要素能源效率的影响。结果表明:低碳城市试点政策的实施能够显著提升城市全要素能源效率水平,这一结论分别在进行反事实检验、内生性检验等多重情景下依然稳健。低碳城市试点政策对不同资源禀赋、工业特征、金融发展水平和区域城市的全要素能源效率具有异质性影响。进一步的政策工具文本量化研究发现,命令控制型和公众参与型试点政策工具主要通过推动产业结构升级来提升城市全要素能源效率,市场激励型试点政策工具主要通过驱动技术创新来提升城市全要素能源效率。拓展性分析还显示,低碳城市试点政策存在正向空间溢出效应,即其对相邻城市全要素能源效率提升具有显著正向影响。因此,持续扩大低碳城市试点范围,因地制宜设计政策工具组合,共建区域间协同合作机制是实现节能减排目标的重要保障。

This article takes three batches of low-carbon city pilot policies implemented since 2010 as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the difference-in-difference method to investigate the impact of the LCCP on the total factor energy efficiency of cities at the prefecture level and above in China. The results show that the implementation of the LCCP can significantly improve the level of total factor energy efficiency of cities, and this conclusion remains robust under multiple scenarios such as counterfactual test and endogeneity test. Additionally, the LCCP has heterogeneous effects on total factor energy efficiency across different resource endowments, industrial characteristics, financial development levels and regional cities. Further quantitative research on the text of the policy instruments finds that command-and-control and public participation pilot policy instruments enhance urban total factor energy efficiency mainly by promoting industrial structure upgrading;and market incentive pilot policy instruments enhance urban total factor energy efficiency by driving technological innovation. The extended analysis also shows that there is a positive spatial spillover effect of the LCCP, that is, they have a significant positive impact on the improvement of total factor energy efficiency in neighboring cities.Therefore, continuously expanding the scope of pilot low-carbon cities, designing a combination of policy tools according to local conditions, and building a synergistic cooperation mechanism among regions together are important guarantees for achieving energy-saving and emission reduction goals.