新《预算法》下地方政府债务的预算软约束——基于“自发自还”地方债交易数据的测算

Soft Budget Constraint on Local Government Debt under the New Budget Law: Estimation Based on “Self-issue and Self-pay” Local Government Bond

中国地方政府的债务融资行为长期以来存在预算软约束问题,学界与业界认为这是地方政府债务风险积聚的主要原因之一。本文使用2015年2季度—2018年4季度地方政府"自发自还"债券交易数据并匹配地区经济指标,从地方债券总价差中剥离出违约风险溢价,基于面板数据模型分析地区经济发展因素对地方债券违约风险溢价的冲击,间接测度了地方政府预算约束的变化。研究发现,新《预算法》实施以来,地区经济增速、财政收支比以及房地产固定资产投资GDP占比等地区经济因素显著影响地方债券违约风险溢价,反映出地方政府预算软约束问题一定程度上得以缓解。本研究评估了地方政府发行"自发自还"债券对预算软约束的缓解效果,可为地方政府下一步的融资改革和债务风险管理提供决策参考。

Academia and the industry believe that China’s local government debt financing behavior has long been troubled by soft budget constraint, which is one of the main reasons for the accumulation of local government debt risk. Using the local government’s "self-issue and self-pay" bonds data from second quarter 2015 to fourth quarter 2018, matched with regional economic development indicators, after stripping the default risk premium from the total spread of local bonds, we employ panel data model to analyze the impact of local economic development factors on the default risk premium of local bonds, and indirectly measure the changes of local government soft budget constraint. It is found out that, since the implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015, local economic growth, fiscal revenue and expenditure ratio, and real estate fixed asset investment GDP ratio and other local economic factors have significantly affected the default risk premium, reflecting a certain degree of local government budget soft constraints. The research evaluates the mitigation effect of new policy on soft budget constraints, which can provide decision-making reference for the next financing reform and debt risk management of local governments.