中国新发展格局的支撑:大国雁阵模式

The Key Driver of China’s New Economic Development Pattern:A Major Power’s Flying Geese Paradigm

中国构建新发展格局的重要支撑是推动形成自身的大国雁阵模式。本文通过现实观察分析中国大国雁阵模式的发展情况。结果表明,中国确实在国际金融危机之后形成了大国雁阵模式。但是这一模式的发生具有省份的异质性,不同省份转出或承接产业的情况不同,而且中部和西部承接劳动密集型产业和加工贸易的情况不同。大国雁阵模式的演进并非是线性的,会出现停滞甚至是逆转的情况,而且其推进速度较慢。中国未来应该更加主动地推进自身的大国雁阵模式。

This paper examines China’s flying geese paradigm that serves as a key driver of a new pattern of the country’s economic development.Our results suggest that such a major power’s flying geese paradigm has taken shape in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.However,this paradigm has provincial heterogeneity in that industrial relocation varies across provinces.For instance,China’s central and western regions have shown differences while serving as destinations for labor-intensive industries and processing trade.This flying geese paradigm evolves in a slow and nonlinear manner,and may be subject to stagnation and even reversal.