我国水稻生产中不同类型技术要素投入的时空变化及门限效应分析

Temporal and Spatial Changes and Threshold Effects of Different Types of Technical Inputs in Rice Production in China

基于1978~2016年我国大陆30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,分析了我国水稻生产中的农业机械技术要素投入和农业灌溉技术要素投入的时空变化,采用面板门限回归模型,实证分析了两类技术对我国水稻生产的影响。结果表明:农业机械技术要素投入增幅大于农业灌溉技术要素投入,且二者均增加的省份主要位于北方,其中东北增幅最大,减少的省份主要位于南方,其中华南降幅最大;农业机械技术要素投入和农业灌溉技术要素投入对我国水稻生产的影响均具有相同的双门限效应,门限值为1981和1989年,但两类技术影响水稻生产的演进路径不尽相同,农业机械技术要素投入经历了从最初与水稻生产实际不匹配而导致过剩到对水稻增产作用逐渐增强的阶段,而农业灌溉技术要素投入对水稻产量的影响一直是正向且影响程度不断增强。因此,差异化实施农业生产技术要素发展政策,是提高农业技术效用水平、保障国家粮食安全的重要途径。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(cities and autonomous regions)in the mainland of China from 1978 to 2016,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of agricultural machinery technology input and agricultural irrigation technology inputs in rice production in China,and uses the panel threshold regression model to empirically analyze the impact of the two technologies in rice production in China.The results show that the increase of agricultural machinery technology factor input is greater than that of agricultural irrigation technology factor input.The provinces with both increasing are mainly located in the north,with the biggest increase in northeast China and the biggest decrease in south China.The impact of agricultural machinery and agricultural irrigation technology input in rice production in China has the same double threshold,1981 and 1989.But the action paths of two kinds of technology impact on rice production are not the same.Agricultural machinery technology input is from the initial mismatch with rice production reality leading to the excess to the increasing effect on rice production.However,the impact of agricultural irrigation technology factor input on rice production is always positive and the impact degree is increasing.Therefore,the development policy of agricultural production technology elements should be implemented differently to improve the utility level of agricultural technology and ensure the national food security.