中国防震减灾事业现代化指数构建研究

Study on the construction of modernization index of earthquake prevention and mitigation in China

中国处于环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带的交汇区域,地震活动频率高、范围广、强度大,深受地震灾害影响。2019年,中国地震局提出到2035年全国基本实现防震减灾事业现代化的发展目标,本文旨在研究构建中国防震减灾事业现代化综合指数的具体方法,以量化衡量发展水平。本文首先明确了防震减灾事业现代化的概念和内涵,依据科学性、独立性等原则构建综合评价指标体系,继而结合评价对象特点和不同评价方法原理,选用效用函数法计算综合指数,最后利用2015年至2017年各省数据对构建的防震减灾事业现代化指数进行实证分析,根据评价结果给出我国防震减灾事业现代化发展的建议。

China is located in the intersection area of the circum Pacific seismic belt and Eurasian seismic belt,with high frequency,wide range and high intensity of seismicity,which is deeply affected by earthquake disasters.In 2019,China Earthquake Administration put forward the development goal of basically realizing the modernization of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China by 2035.This paper aims to study the specific methods of constructing the comprehensive index of modernization of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China,so as to quantitatively measure the development level.This paper first defines the concept and connotation of modernization of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction,and constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on the principles of scientificity and independence.Then,combined with the characteristics of evaluation objects and the principles of different evaluation methods,the utility function method is used to calculate the comprehensive index.Finally,the empirical analysis of the modernization index of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction is carried out by using the provincial data from 2015 to 2017.According to the evaluation results,some suggestions for the modernization of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction in China are given.