榆林北部地区草原火灾管理现状及分布优化

Present situation and distribution optimization of grassland fire management in Northern Yulin

本文基于逻辑斯蒂回归模型,以2015年6月~2020年5月该地区火点数据为基础,结合气候、植被指数、地形、人口及草原分布,对榆林北部地区主要草原进行火险等级划分。在此基础上,对研究区域的已建防火监控点和新建防火监控点选址分析,同时根据火险区划结果,综合考虑高火险区域、公路以及居民点的距离等因素进行草原火灾扑救区规划,实现对研究区域森林草原火灾的管理区划。结果表明:植被指数、人口、高程、坡度、坡向、距离公路的距离、距离居民点的距离、年平均地表气温、年平均降水量、年平均风速、草原分布等11个因素与草原火灾的发生显著相关,且预测模型的准确率为到73.8%。使用该模型区划区域火险等级,结果表明高火险面积约占39.15%,且分布相对集中,新建防火瞭望塔将监测覆盖率从原有的35.89%提升至50.45%。考虑到高火险地区距离、到公路距离和到居民点距离,利用层次分析法对草原火灾扑救区划分,通过加权分析得到相应的扑救区划图。研究结果可为榆林北部风沙区域草原火灾预防与管理工作提供一定的支持。

Based on logistic regression model,based on the fire point data of the region from June 2019 to may 2020,the paper classifies the major grasslands in Northern Yulin by combining climate,vegetation index,topography,population and grassland distribution.On this basis,the paper analyzes the location of the established fire monitoring points and new fire monitoring points in the research area,and according to the fire risk zoning results,the grassland fire fighting area planning is carried out based on the factors such as the distance between high fire risk areas,roads and residential areas,so as to realize the management division of forest grassland fire in the study area.The results show that:the vegetation index,population,elevation,slope,slope direction,distance from highway,distance from residential area,annual average surface temperature,annual average precipitation,annual average wind speed and grassland distribution are significantly related to the occurrence of grassland fire,and the accuracy of the prediction model is 73.8%.The results show that the area of high fire risk accounts for 39.15%and the distribution is relatively concentrated.The new fire watchtower increases the monitoring coverage from 35.89%to 50.45%.Considering the distance from high fire risk area,distance to highway and distance to residential area,the paper divides the grassland fire fighting area by AHP,and obtains the corresponding fire fighting zoning map by weighted analysis.The results can provide some support for the fire prevention and management in the windy sand area of Northern Yulin.