中国水资源非农化的空间效应分析

Analysis on Spatial Effect of Water Resources'Non-Agriculturization in China

[目的]水资源非农化利用水平区域差异明显,探究其空间异质性对优化水资源配置,规划不同产业间用水方案具有重要意义。[方法]基于2000-2017年中国31省面板数据,利用空间自相关方法测度了水资源非农化的空间关联特征,采用空间面板杜宾模型测度水资源非农化发展的空间溢出效应。[结果]中国31个省份的水资源非农化程度存在显著的正向空间自相关;选取产业结构、经济水平等变量考察水资源非农化在区域内和区域间的空间溢出效应,结果显示各因素在省域范围内多呈现正向溢出效应,省域间的溢出效应方向有正有负。[结论]地区之间影响水资源非农化的各个因素互相牵制带动,区域之间应加强协同,形成良性竞争状态。

There are obvious regional differences in the level of non-agricultural utilization of water resources.It is of great significance to explore its spatial heterogeneity in order to optimize the allocation of regional water resources and plan water use schemes among different industries.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,spatial auto-correlation method was used to measure the spatial correlation characteristics of non-agricultural development of water resources,and the spatial panel Durbin model was used to measure the spatial spillover effect of non-agricultural development of water resources.The results show that:There are significant positive spatial auto-correlation and spatial agglomeration in the degree of non-agricultural water resources in China's 31 provinces.Selecting industrial structure,economic level and other variables to investigate the spatial spillover effect of water resources'non-agriculturization in the region and between regions,the results show each factor presents positive spillover effect in the provincial range,and the spillover effect direction between provinces has positive and negative directions,which indicates that the various factors affecting the non-agricultural water resources between regions are restrained and driven by each other,and the cooperation among regions should be strengthened to form a benign competition state.