杭州西湖风景名胜区客流波动特征及景点发展模式划分

The Fluctuation Characteristics of Tourist Arrivals and Division of Scenic Spots Development Mode in Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Area

基于2009-2019年杭州西湖风景名胜区主要收费景点的月度客流数据,运用小波分析、相关分析、聚类分析法探讨景点客流周期波动特征及景点间客流的相关性,在此基础上划分其发展模式.研究发现:主要收费景点的客流量差异显著且呈现出不同的峰值结构,在旅游者闲暇时间、黄金周效应、民俗文化等社会因素和气候等自然因素影响下的客流季节变化显著;杭州西湖风景名胜区客流演变过程中存在4—5月尺度的自然季节性周期和8月尺度的体制季节性周期,16-19月尺度是自然、社会因素双重作用形成的年间周期,57-61月尺度周期则可能受经济周期、重大事件等影响;根据景点感知度、景点类型、景点客流波动特征等,将主要收费景点的发展模式划分为4种类型:知名度主导型、热门景点辐射型、特色文化驱动型及“飞地式”发展模式.

Based on the monthly tourist arrivals data of major paid attractions in Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Area from 2009 to 2019,wavelet analysis,correlation analysis and cluster analysis are used to analyze the characteristics of tourist arrivals cycle fluctuation and the correlation of tourist arrivals among different scenic spots,and then the developmental modes are divided.The research fingdings are that:the tourist arrivals of main charging attractions are significantly different and present different peak structuresꎻthat under the influence of social factors such as tourists’leisure time,golden week effect,folk culture and natural factors such as climate,the seasonal change of tourist arrivals is significant.There is a natural seasonal cycle on a scale from April to May and an institutional seasonal cycle on a scale of August in the evolution of tourist arrivals in Hangzhou West Lake Scenic Areaꎻthat the scale of 16-19 is an inter-annual cycle formed by the dual effects of natural and social factorsꎻthe scale of 57-61 monthly cycle may be affected by economics cycles and major events.According to the perception of attractions,types of attractions and the characteristics of tourist arrivals fluctuation,the developmental modes of major paid attractions are divided into four types:popularity-oriented,popular attractions radia-tion,characteristic culture-driven and“enclave-style”development mode.