基于有限差分法的路表温度预估模型

A Road Surface Temperature Prediction Model Based on FDM

以山西大同结构试验区为研究对象,基于实测路面温度与气象数据,分析了路表温度的变化规律。利用有限差分法求解了路面温度场热传导方程,建立了短时路表温度数值预估模型。结果表明,以气温、太阳辐射、风速等气象数据预估路表温度,平均误差在0.5℃以下,均方差为2.5℃左右。分析了不同季节与气象条件下,预测误差的分布特点。结果表明,忽略天空有效温度与气温的差值,将会造成预估温度系统性偏高。纳入该因素后,预估精度得到明显改善。

Taking the structure test area in Datong,Shanxi as the research object,based on the measured road surface temperature and meteorological data,the changes of road surface temperature were analyzed.Finite difference method was used to solve the heat conduction equation of the pavement temperature field,and then established a short-term road surface temperature numerical prediction model.The results showed that the accuracy of predicting road surface temperature based on meteorological data such as temperature,solar radiation,and wind speed was relatively high.The average error was below 0.5℃,and the mean square error was about 2.5℃.The distribution characteristics of forecast errors under different seasons and meteorological conditions were analyzed,and the result showed that if ignorance of the difference between the effective sky temperature and the air temperature might cause the estimated temperature to be systematically higher.After including this factor,the accuracy of the estimation was significantly improved.