岸线变化及海平面上升对渤海潮波运动影响研究

Impacts of coastline changes and sea level rise on tides in the Bohai Sea

该文基于Delft3D建立了渤海潮波模型,对1976年-2013年渤海湾岸线变化及海平面上升情景下的渤海潮波系统进行了模拟。模拟结果显示黄河入海口东迁和渤海湾大规模围垦引起渤海湾和莱州湾M2分潮潮时提前,渤海湾M2分潮振幅增加4 cm-14 cm,并引起辽莱州湾和辽东湾的振幅减少4 cm-10 cm和1 cm-4 cm。海平面上升(1 m、2 m和0.2 m-0.8 m)加快潮波传播速度,将引起渤海湾M2分潮潮时提前和振幅增加,渤海中部及秦皇岛海域振幅减小。不同历史岸线条件下海平面引起的振幅变化表明在海平面上升1 m时,渤海湾内大规模围垦会进一步增加局地潮波振幅;当海平面上升至2 m后,围垦对近场振幅增加的促进作用减弱,而对远场振幅增长的抑制作用增强。

A tidal model of Bohai sea based on Delft3 D is configured to investigate the responses of tidal hydrodynamics in Bohai Sea to historical coastline change(1976-2013)and potential sea level rise(SLR).The results show the shift of Yellow River mouth and large-scale reclamation in Bohai Bay result in the early arrival of M2 tide in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay.M2 amplitude in Bohai Bay is increased by 4-14 cm,which is dampened by 4-10 cm and 1-4 cm in Laizhou Bay and Liaodong Bay,respectively.Potential SLR(1 m、2 m and 0.2-0.8 m)accelerates the tidal wave propagation leading to an earlier arrival and amplitude increase of M2 tidal in Bohai Bay,while the decreases of M2 amplitude are found in central Bohai Sea and Qinhuangdao sea.The simulations also demonstrate large-scale reclamation in Bohai Bay can exaggerate the local tidal amplitude in1 m SLR scenario.In 2 m SLR scenario,the amplification effect of reclamation on the near-field tidal amplitude is inconspicuous,but the inhibiting effect of reclamation on far-field tidal amplitude will be intensified.