清代的市场整合及其空间结构(1738—1820)

Market Integration and Its Spatial Structure in Qing Dynasty (1738—1820)

中西方经济"大分流"前夕的中国是否存在一个统一的国内市场,是学术界一直争论的问题,本文采用定量方法对这个问题进行分析。研究国内长途贸易的学者倾向于认为清代中期形成了统一的国内市场,施坚雅则认为中国的各大区市场是相互独立的。产生分歧的原因在于研究者们对于判定统一的国内市场的标准没有形成一致意见,同时缺乏建立在经验数据基础上的定量检验。清代留下了时空覆盖范围系统完整的粮价数据,本文即利用清代粮价数据构建一套对区域市场整合程度进行度量的评价指标,在不同的时间和空间范围内对以上争论进行检验。本文的分析结果显示,各个大区市场表现出来的差异性和不同步性模式与施坚雅的研究结果相仿,本文从实证检验的角度支持施坚雅的大区理论。

This paper intended to quantitatively investigate the degree of market integration in China during 1738 to 1820,a period prior to the great divergence.It has been debated for a long time over whether the grain market within China was nationally integrated in the middle period of Qing dynasty.Researchers who focused on the domestic trade tend to emphasize that the market in China has functioned quite well and even claim that it was as integrated as the west European market at the eve of industry revolution.However,Skinner disapproved of that from his perspective of macroregion theory,regarding China as nine economically separated macroregions instead of an integrated market.Both sides of the debate have not quantitatively constructed a measurable standard to reach a consensus for evaluating the degree of market integration.Today large-scale datasets of grain price in the Qing dynasty are available,with a comprehensive coverage of time and space.We employ quantitative methods to analyze the grain price at various space-time scales,thus constructing an index for measuring market integration to test Skinner’s theory.Our results show that the degree of market integration varied across regions and decreased in the late 18th century.This paper empirically confirms Skinner’s macroregion theory,concluding that China was far from a nationally integrated market during 1738 and 1820.