经贸摩擦、国家创新空间与全球半导体产业升级

Trade Conflict,National Innovation Space and Global Semiconductor Industry Upgrade

针对经贸摩擦、创新空间影响半导体产业升级问题,依据国家创新空间理论,使用1995—2018年世界银行和Atlas数据库数据,运用逐步回归和分组检验,构建全球199个经济体创新空间影响半导体产业升级的分析框架。结果表明:经贸摩擦促进半导体出口量增加;教育水平、税收政策、国家发展程度、亚洲经济体对半导体出口和产业升级指标具有正向作用,但城镇化、绿色经济、金融市场、政府效率和人居环境具有异质性;进一步对亚洲经济体双重差分结果显示,亚洲经济体相比其他经济体,在经贸摩擦环境下经济复杂度的变化均值为0.05169,经贸摩擦和创新空间因素交互效应显著为正,共同促进亚洲半导体产业升级,政府应通过提高创新空间要素投入促进经济可持续发展。

This paper analyzes the influences of trade conflict and the innovation space on the upgrade of the semiconductor industry.According to the theory of the national innovation space,using the 1995—2018 World Bank and Atlas databases,the methods of stepwise regression and grouping test are used to set up an analysis framework for the impact of the innovation space on the semiconductor industry in 199 economies around the world.The results show that trade conflict promotes the increase in semiconductor exports,and education,tax policies,national development levels,and Asian countries have a positive effect on semiconductor exports and industrial upgrade indicators;however,the influences of urbanization,carbon emission reduction,financial market,government efficiency and living environment are heterogeneous.A further analysis of the different results of Asian countries show that compared with other economies,the average change in economic complexity index of Asian countries in the environment of trade conflict is 0.05169,and the interactive effects of trade conflict and innovation space factors are significantly positive.To jointly promote industrial upgrade of Asian semiconductors,the governments should promote sustainable economic development by increasing investment to innovative space elements.