基于系统思维下的消费市场状态评价及调控体系初探--以三维三层卷烟为例

Analysis of Evaluation and Regulation System of Consumer Market State Based on System Thinking

本文以系统思维为统领,通过深入剖析卷烟市场逻辑和相关指标内涵,明确了状态评价和策略评价相分离的思路,初步阐明了系统思维下总量、价位、品规三个维度,以及国家烟草专卖局、省烟草公司和工业企业、地市公司三个层级在市场状态评价及调控工作中的判定逻辑和动态调整机制,同时结合历史数据分析,给出了以条均行批差、订单需求满足率为核心指标的市场状态评价矩阵,以及品规维度“俏紧平松软”属性评价阈值范围参考,为实现卷烟市场状态“稍紧平衡”提供了决策参考。

This article takes system thinking as the command,through in-depth analysis of the cigarette market logic and the connotation of related indicators,clarifies the idea of separating state evaluation and strategy evaluation,and initially clarifies the three dimensions of total volume,price,and quality regulations under system thinking,and points out the judgment logic and dynamic adjustment mechanism of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration,provincial companies,industrial enterprises,and prefecture-level companies in the evaluation and regulation of market conditions.At the same time,combined with historical data analysis,this paper gives the market state evaluation matrix with the average line batch difference and order demand satisfaction rate as the core indicators,as well as the reference to the evaluation threshold range of the“tight,fl at and soft”attribute of the quality specification dimension,it provides a decision-making reference for realizing the“slightly tight balance”of cigarette market.