新型城镇化建设下不同类型就业人口流动的影响因素研究——基于房价波动的视角

A Study of the Influencing Factors on Different Types of Employment Population Flow under the New Urbanization Construction——Based on the Perspective of House Price Fluctuations

住房作为居民持有的重资产,对城市就业人口分布产生重要影响。本文基于2000—2018年我国60个大中城市数据,对造成不同产业、不同类型就业人口流动的影响因素进行考察,重点关注房价与工资变量,并将城市分为四类,考察回归结果在区域间的差异。研究表明:城市房价升高会对第二产业就业人数造成挤入、对第三产业就业人数造成挤出;但令人意外的是,房价升高反而引起科技从业人数和低门槛行业从业人数增加,且后者增加幅度高于前者,这种影响还存在显著的区域差异,即一线城市对于科技人才的吸纳程度反而不及新一线及二线城市;城市平均工资水平的上涨会造成对高低技能就业人口的挤出。因此,应"因地制宜""因材制宜"地对住房制度进行设计、提高城市公共服务水平,以吸引和留住就业人口。

As a heavy asset held by residents,housing has an important impact on the distribution of urban employed population.Based on the data of 60 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2000 to 2018,this paper investigates the influencing factors on population mobility in different industries and different types of employment,especially focusing on house price and wage variables.Furthermore,this paper divides cities into four categories,and investigates the differences of regression results among regions.The research shows that the rise of urban house prices will squeeze in the employment of the secondary industry and squeeze out the employment of the tertiary industry;however,it is surprising that the rise in house prices has led to an increase in the number of science and technology employees and the number of employees in low threshold industries,and the increase rate of the latter is higher than that of the former.There are also significant regional differences in this impact.On the contrary,the absorption of science and technology talents in the first-tier cities is lower than that in the new first-tier and second-tier cities;the rise of urban average wage level will squeeze out the population with high and low skills.Therefore,the real estate policy system should be designed"according to local circumstances of different cities"and"according to the conditions of different types of people"to improve the level of urban public services,so as to attract and retain the employed population.