俄罗斯经济的多重二元结构与发展困境——基于经济环境与制度视角的考察

Multiple Dual Structure and Development Predicament of Russian Economy: An Analysis Based on Economic Environment and Institutions

刘易斯的二元经济理论基于"劳动力无限供给"假设,对像俄罗斯这样的劳动力短缺国家缺乏解释力,但借用这一概念并加入制度因素,可用于解释俄罗斯经济中存在的多重二元结构以及由此造成的"有增长无发展"困境。俄罗斯经济的多重二元结构是指在其经济的不同领域存在着优势部门和弱势部门之分,按产业类型划分,存在能源原材料行业和制造业之分;按竞争程度划分,存在垄断部门和自由竞争部门的对立;按所有权划分,存在国有企业和私人企业的分野。前者为优势部门,后者则为弱势部门。优势部门在很大程度上拥有塑造经济环境和制度环境的能力,弱势部门只能在优势部门所塑造的经济环境和制度下运行和发展。这种多重二元结构是造成俄罗斯经济难以克服能源依赖、实现经济多元化和现代化的重要因素。俄罗斯经济要突破发展困境,走上均衡发展的轨道,需要破除多重二元结构,为不同经济主体赋予平等的经济环境和制度条件。

William Arthur Lewis’s theory of dual sector model is based on the hypothesis of"unlimited supply of labor",which cannot explain labor shortages in countries such as Russia.However,by borrowing this concept and including institutional factors,it can be used to explain the existing multiple dual structure in the Russian economy and the resulting predicament of"growth without development".The multi-dual structure of the Russian economy means the economy has both sectors with disadvantages and those with advantages.In terms of types of industries,Russian industries can be divided into energy and raw material industries and manufacturing industries.In terms of degree of competition,they can be divided into monopoly sectors and free-competition sectors.In terms of ownership,they can be divided into state-owned and private enterprises.In all the above categories,the former sectors are those with advantages while the latter ones are those with disadvantages.Those with advantages,to a large extent,have the ability to shape the economic and institutional environment,while those with disadvantages can only operate and grow under the economic environment and institution shaped by sectors in the advantageous positions.Such a multi-dual structure is an important factor that makes it difficult for Russia’s economy to overcome energy dependence and achieve economic diversification and modernization.To overcome the development predicament and embark on a road of balanced development,the Russian economy needs to break its multi-dual structure and create an equality-based economic environment and institution conditions for different economic entities.