“艾伦条件”边界与现收现付养老适度水平

Boundary of “Aaron Condition” and the Appropriate Level of Pay-as-yougo Pension System

"艾伦条件"揭示了养老保险现收现付制和基金制优化条件。本文依据人口老龄化背景下"艾伦条件"与现收现付养老适度水平的联动关系,发现了"艾伦条件"边界效应及其动态发展规律。第一,在人口老龄化背景下,若现收现付养老保险超过适度水平,即使满足"艾伦条件",现收现付制也不是最优选择;若现收现付保持适度水平,即使"艾伦条件"波动或暂时不满足,现收现付也是优化选择;这就是"艾伦条件"边界或"艾伦条件"的条件。第二,依据养老人口均衡分配原理,测度"艾伦条件"边界,基于典型发达国家和中国数据分析发现:21世纪中叶"艾伦条件"边界,现收现付缴费率在0.15左右,给付替代率在0.35左右;通过人口结构优化和全要素生产率提升,可以推进"艾伦条件"满足和现收现付适度水平协同发展。第三,"艾伦条件"边界具有人口可持续、经济可持续、养老可持续等联动效应。

"Aaron condition"reveals the optimization conditions of pay-as-you-go system and fund system of pension.Based on the linkage between"Aaron condition"and the appropriate level of pay-as-you-go pension against the backdrop of population aging,this article has found out the boundary effect of"Aaron condition"and its dynamic development law.First,in the context of population aging,if the pay-as-you-go pension level exceeds the appropriate level,even if the"Aaron condition"is met,the pay-as-you-go system is not the optimal choice.If the pay-as-you-go pension is maintained at an appropriate level,even if the"Aaron condition fluctuates is temporarily not met,the pay-as-you-go pension remains an optimal choice;this is the boundary or condition of"Aaron condition".Second,based on the principle of balanced distribution of elderly population and data analysis of typical developed countries and China,it is found that,for the boundary of the"Aaron condition"in the mid-21 st century,the pay-as-you-go contribution rate is about 0.15,and the benefit replacement rate is about0.35 in the mid-21 st century.Through the optimization of demographic structure and the improvement of total factor productivity,we can promote the coordinated development of"Aaron condition"and the appropriate pay-as-you-go level.Third,the boundary of"Aaron condition"is subject to the effect of linkage with demographic,economic,and pension sustainability.