2021年8月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,August 2021

目的评估2021年8月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计8月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较7月类似或略有下降。我国境内发生新型冠状病毒本土传播疫情有望较快得到控制;未来面临的境外输入及续发本地传播风险持续存在。根据2021年以来的发病情况以及既往疾病流行规律提示,不排除散发人感染禽流感病例的风险。气象部门预测的洪涝灾区需要关注灾后可能导致的水源性、食源性和媒介传染病上升的风险。结论特别关注新型冠状病毒肺炎,一般关注人感染禽流感以及自然灾害。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies,both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in August 2021.Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels,and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference.Results It is expected that public health emergency events in August 2021 would be similar or slightly lower than in July.The indigenous transmission of COVID-19 in China is expected to be brought under control soon with the concerted efforts of the whole country;The risk of foreign importation and subsequent local transmission continues.According to the incidence of the disease since this year and the previous disease epidemic pattern,the risk of sporadic human infection with avian influenza cases can not be excluded.Flood areas,predicted by meteorological authorities,need to be concerned about the risk of a rise in water-borne,food-borne and vector-borne diseases following the disaster.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19.General attentions should be paid to human infection with avian influenza and natural calamities.