2021年7月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in July 2021

目的评估2021年7月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、世界卫生组织(WHO)各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用"全球重点关注国家"、"各WHO分区一般关注国家"和"周边特别关注国家"予以表示。结果与2021年6月相比,2021年7月全球新增确诊病例增长了36.59%,全球新增死亡病例降低了4.78%。除美洲区(南)外,其他分区的新增确诊均呈现出增长趋势,其中非洲区的新增确诊和死亡病例持续大幅度增长,应重点关注。全球每新增1000万确诊病例用时整体呈现缩短趋势,每新增50万死亡病例用时增加。有多个国家7月新增确诊增长率超过了100%,其中美国、印度尼西亚、英国、俄罗斯、伊朗、西班牙和南非为全球重点关注国家。俄罗斯、老挝、哈萨克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦是我国陆地接壤十四国中特别关注国家。结论进入7月后,全球COVID-19疫情出现反弹,除非洲疫情持续恶化外,美洲区(北)、欧洲区、东地中海区和西太平洋区均出现大幅度反弹。全球COVID-19疫情发展态势严峻,对于全球重点关注国家要进行持续监测,实时调整入境管控政策,并与相关机构建立沟通机制,及时预警。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in July 2021 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighbouring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”,“countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region”and“neighbouring countries of special concern”.Results Compared with June 2021,apart from the Americas(South),the number of newly confirmed cases in other regions has shown an increasing trend.Among them,the number of newly confirmed and death cases in Africa continued to increase significantly,which needs critical concern.Globally,there were trends that it took much less time for a 10 million case increase and more time for a 500000 death increase.In many countries,the growth rate of newly confirmed cases in July exceeded 100%.The United States,Indonesia,the United Kingdom,Russia,Iran,Spain,and South Africa are‘countries with global concern’.Russia,Laos,Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are‘land-boarding countries with special concern’.Conclusion Since July,the COVID-19 epidemic has rebounded.Apart from the continued deterioration of the African epidemic,Americas(North),European,Eastern Mediterranean and Western Pacific all rebounded sharply.The pandemic of COVID-19 is still serious in the world.It is necessary to continuously monitor the situation in countries with global concern,adjust entry control policies in time and establish a communication mechanism with relevant agencies for information sharing and timely warnings.