生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚对生态效应的影响——基于西北五省区动态SDM和面板门槛模型的实证检验

The Influence of Collaborative Agglomeration of Producer Services and Manufacturing Industry on Ecological Effect:An Empirical Test Based on Dynamic SDM and Panel Threshold Model in Five Provinces of Northwest China

绿水青山就是金山银山,生态环境的好坏关乎人民福祉的高低。基于西北五省区2009—2017年面板数据,利用动态空间杜宾模型(动态SDM)和E-G协同集聚指数检验生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚对生态效应是否存在空间影响,并通过构建单门槛效应模型,进一步分析了生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚影响生态效应的强度。研究表明:第一,生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚通过提高科技水平改善了生态环境,具有显著的长期效应。第二,生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚对本区域生态改善具有积极促进作用,对其他周边地区生态效应也同样具有溢出效应,这体现出区域协调性。第三,当异质型人力资本的数量跨过门槛值16422后,生产性服务业和制造业协同集聚对生态环境的改善才会发挥显著的积极影响。基于以上结论并立足西北五省区发展现状,应当建立系统完善、刚性约束的制度体系,充分发挥知识、技术溢出效应,重视人力资本推动区域发展的边际贡献,同时应当以区域经济一体化为依托,完善区域产业布局,打破区域边界,让生态效应改善的成果充分“外溢”。

Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets.Clear water and green mountains are mountains of gold and silver.The quality of the ecological environment is related to the well-being of the people.Based on the panel data of five provinces and regions in Northwest China from 2009 to 2017,this paper uses Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model(Dynamic SDM)and E-G Collaborative Agglomeration Index to test whether the collaborative agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing has a spatial impact on the ecological effect,and constructs a single threshold effect model.Further analysis is made on the intensity of ecological effect of the synergistic agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing.The results show that:①Collaborative agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing improves the ecological environment by improving the level of science and technology,and has significant long-term effects.②The overall Moran's Si is significantly positive,which indicates that the collaborative agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing has a significant positive spatial correlation with the ecological effect in the five provinces of Northwest China.From the perspective of collaborative agglomeration index,the collaborative agglomeration index of producer service industry and manufacturing industry in Shaanxi Province has a significant rise,and the development tends to be more and more balanced.The industrial collaborative agglomeration trend is the most obvious in the five northwest provinces and regions,while the other four provinces and regions have a downward trend.③The synergistic agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing plays a positive role in promoting the ecological improvement of the region,and also has a spillover effect on the ecological effects of other surrounding areas,which reflects the regional coordination.④When the number of heterogeneous human capital crosses the threshold of 16422,the synergistic agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing will have a significant positive effect on the improvement of the ecological environment,which is nearly 1.6 times as much as that of the non-threshold value.Based on the above conclusion is based on the current situation of the development of the northwest five provinces,shall establish a system perfect,rigid constraint system,perfecting the talents introduction and talent management measures at the same time,is conducive to further promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the northwest five provinces,services of the mass transfer efficiency,promote the effective allocation of resources in space,it is of great practical significance to strengthen regional integration and promote coordinated development.