地震与磁暴主相最低点时刻的相关性

Relationship between earthquakes and main phase of magnetic storms

利用磁暴研究地震,特别是预测大地震的报道经常见诸公共媒体,引发诸多质疑。本研究以地震和磁暴(主相最低点)时刻的先后关系为研究对象,在不同时间窗、不同磁暴大小条件下,统计不同震级的地震与磁暴发生之间的时差及对应的地震比例,发现该比例随震前时间窗的增加或磁暴强度的减弱而不断增大,与起始震级基本无关。讨论磁暴对后续地震的“预兆”意义,发现对于中等强度以下的磁暴,在磁暴前后发生的地震比例基本相同,而在强磁暴及更高强度的磁暴后,地震发生概率显著增大,表明强磁暴对地震发生具有一定指示作用。

Reports on using magnetic storms to predict earthquakes are frequent in public mediums and often queried at the same time.Here the time differences between earthquakes and the main phase of magnetic storms are analyzed for different time windows,storm intensity,and earthquake magnitude.The results show that:①There is no clear relationship between the ratio and earthquake magnitude;②The ratio rises with time window increasing or storm intensity weakening.Meanwhile,whether the pre-earthquake magnetic storm exists or not is also discussed.The earthquake ratio keeps the same before and after moderate or small intensity storms.After strong or higher intensity storms,the earthquake ratio is clearly higher,which indicates that the strong storms have a certain indicating effect on the occurrence of earthquakes.