考虑断层震源的南天山-帕米尔地区地震危险性模型协调统一研究

STUDY ON SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL HARMONIZATION IN SOUTH TIANSHAN-PAMIR AREA CONSIDERING FAULT SEISMOGENIC SOURCES

分析中亚-中东地震危险性模型和中国模型在南天山-帕米尔地区的地震危险性模型特点,重新划分面源潜在震源区,重新确定新潜源的地震活动性参数。使用南天山-帕米尔地区的断层资料建立了断层震源模型,并计算断层震源的地震活动性参数。将面源和断层源结合,使用协调后的模型计算该地区的地震危险性。研究表明,使用断层源模型后,帕米尔高原几条主要断裂附近的地震危险性有所降低,喜马拉雅地震带、南天山北坡和中亚地区的地震危险性有所升高。

Analyzes the characteristics of the seismic hazard model of Central Asia,the Middle East and China in the South Tianshan-Pamir area,re-divides the seismogenic area sources and re-determines the seismicity parameters of the new sources.Based on the fault data in the South Tianshan-Pamir area,a fault-source model was established,and the seismicity parameters of the fault source were calculated.Combining area source and the fault source,the harmonized model is used to calculate seismic hazard of the area.After using the fault source model,the seismic hazard near several major faults in the Pamir Plateau has been reduced.The Himalayan seismic zone,the northern slope of the South Tianshan Mountains and Central Asia have increased seismic hazard.