“建设更高水平的平安中国”的新展开——犯罪热点稳定性的再验证及其启示

Some New Thoughts on the Peaceful China Construction—The Re-Verification and Enlightenment of the Stability of Crime Hotspots

以往的犯罪空间研究多基于中短期的数据,在较长周期中犯罪空间分布的聚集性、热点稳定性和转移性是否依然成立亟待验证。在城市犯罪学框架下,针对同一研究区、同种犯罪类型进行分组对照实验,以地理信息系统为犯罪制图的工具,对照分析2010—2012年和2017—2019年的犯罪空间分布状况,可以看出犯罪在较长周期中仍然保持聚集性、犯罪热点具有极强的稳定性、犯罪随城市空间结构变化具有一定的转移性,且犯罪转移并未从整体上影响到热点的稳定分布等特性。由此,稳定热点成为犯罪治理的关键,针对稳定热点的治理既应遵循控制犯罪条件的理念,也应重视基层整体智治的实现,还应以犯罪地图公开为犯罪治理共同体运行的依据,以此助力犯罪治理现代化的实现。

Previous studies on crime space based on a short-term data cannot confirm the aggregation,the stability and the transferability as long-term features.Under the framework of urban criminology,a grouped control experiment was conducted for the same research area and the same type of crime,and the geographic information system was used as a tool for crime mapping to compare and analyze the spatial distribution of crimes from 2010 to 2012 and 2017 to 2019.It can be seen that crimes remain concentrated in a long period of time,that crime hotspots are extremely stable,that crimes have a certain degree of transferability with changes in the urban spatial structure,and that crime transfers have not affected the stable distribution of hotspots as a whole.Therefore,stable hotspots have become the key to crime governance.The governance of stable hotspots should not only follow the concept of controlling crime conditions,but also pay attention to the realization of grassroots overall intelligent governance.It should also use crime maps as the basis for the operation of the crime governance community.Contribute to the realization of modernization of crime governance.