面向碳中和的中国碳排放现状调查与分析

Investigation and analysis on carbon emission status in China on the path to carbon neutrality

统筹能源结构、规范能源市场是我国实现“3060双碳目标”的有力举措。为实现“3060双碳目标”,需要对各地区能源结构和碳排放模式进行综合调研,探究影响能源结构转型的关键因素。通过对地理环境、经济、能源等因素的系统分析,将我国分为四大区域--传统能源仓库“北方走廊”、工业耗能大户“工业重镇”、能源消费大户“东部集团”、清洁能源宝库“绿色地带”。通过总结以上区域能源发展存在的不足,发现我国能源亟待解决的3个“不平衡”问题,即传统能源与清洁能源比重不平衡、地区能源供需不平衡、绿色能源与高质量国内生产总值(GDP)发展不平衡。针对上述问题,为兼顾经济效益与环境效益,提出3方面建议:将GDP与碳排放总量相关联,设置GDP权重系数,即“GDP品位”;给绿色能源上户口,制定参考定价标准;建立能桥,统筹能源调配。平衡能源结构与发展经济相结合,实现我国经济环境的可持续发展。

Co-ordinating energy structure and regulating energy market are powerful tools for China to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality by 2030 and 2060.To complete the target,it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive investigation on energy structures and carbon emission patterns of various regions,and explore the key factors affecting energy structure transformation.According to geographic environment,economy,energy and other factors,China can be divided into four regions:the North Corridor(the traditional energy storehouse),the Important Industry Area(energy-intense industrial areas),the East Group(the major energy customer)and the Green Zone(the clean energy treasure-house).By analyzing the energy history in the regions above,three“unbalanced”issues are considered to be solved,which are unreasonable proportions of traditional fossil energy and clean energy,the unbalance between energy supply and demand in space,and the disparate development of green energy and high-quality GDP.Therefore,three suggestions are put forward in order to take economic and environmental benefits into account:connecting GDPs to total carbon emissions;setting GDP weight coefficient,namely"GDP grade";registering ID for green energy users and formulating reference pricing standards for them;establishing energy bridges and making energy allocation aiming to balance the energy structure and economic development and realizing sustainable development of economic environment in China.