中国工业用水强度下降的省际贡献差异与空间相关性

Inter-provincial contribution to decrease of industrial water use intensity and spatial correlation in China

应用贡献度指数、核密度分布曲线、中介效应模型和莫兰指数,分别考察全国工业用水强度下降省际贡献的变化特点,工业用水重复率的中介效应,以及空间相关性。结果表明:2001—2018年,各省(自治区、直辖市)对全国工业用水强度持续下降的贡献度差距较大,东中部地区的节水贡献度指数普遍较大但有所下降,西部地区的节水贡献度指数普遍较小但明显上升;全国工业用水强度下降省际贡献的差距不断缩小,极化现象逐渐弱化;科技创新提升了工业用水强度下降的省际贡献,工业用水重复率产生了比较显著的中介效应;2006年以后,全国工业用水强度下降省际贡献的空间集聚效应明显,且以低低空间集聚状态和高高空间集聚状态为主。

The contribution index,kernel density distribution curve,intermediate effect model and Moran s index are used to investigate the variation characteristics,intermediate effect of repetition rate of industrial water use and spatial correlation of inter-provincial contribution to decrease of the national industrial water use intensity in China.The results show that the contribution of each province(autonomous region or municipality directly under the central government of China)to the continuous decrease of the national industrial water use intensity varies greatly from 2001 to 2018.The water-saving contribution of the eastern and central areas is generally large,while that of the western areas is generally small.The contribution index of the eastern and central areas decrease,while that of the western areas increases obviously.The inter-provincial contribution gap of the decline in the national industrial water use intensity gradually decreases,and the polarization phenomenon gradually becomes small.The scientific and technological innovation has a significantly positive effect on the inter-provincial contribution to the industrial water use intensity decrease,and the repetition rate of industrial water use has a significant intermediate effect on the decrease of the industrial water use intensity.The spatial correlation of the inter-provincial contribution to the decrease of the national industrial water use intensity becomes more and more obvious since 2006,which mainly includes low-low agglomeration and high-high agglomeration.