贵州尖山营变形破坏特征及位移预测分析

Deformation and Failure Characteristics and Displacement Prediction Analysis of Jianshanying in Guizhou Province

为了深入研究尖山营不稳定斜坡的变形破坏特征与位移变化特征,通过对历史影像的观测与现场监测数据进行详细分析,结合时间序列分析方法,将地表合位移进行分解为趋势项和周期项,运用MATLAB软件对其位移函数进行分开拟合,将趋势项拟合函数与周期项拟合函数相加得到合位移预测函数。结果表明:通过2016—2020年影像资料对比,尖山营的崩塌堆积体面积的越来越大,变形体的后缘边界正在越来越后进行扩展,越靠北侧的部位垮塌的面积越来越大,裂缝也越来越多,逐渐演化成尖山营不稳定斜坡;尖山营不稳定斜坡目前处于等速蠕变阶段,位移变化受到煤层采动影响较大;合位移预测模型得到的预测数据与实测数据的贴合度达到0.999。可见通过时间序列分析方法得到的预测模型能够很好的预测尖山营不稳定斜坡位移变化。

In order to study the characteristics of deformation,failure and displacement change of the unstable slope in Jianshanying,the observation and field monitoring data of historical images were analyzed in detail,combined with time series analysis method,the displacement on the surface was decomposed into trend item and cycle,and MATLAB software was used to fit the separated displacement function,the combined displacement prediction function was obtained by adding the trend term fitting function and the periodic term fitting function.The results show that the area of the collapse accumulation body of Jianshanying is getting larger and larger,and the rear boundary of the deformed body is expanding later and later.The more northern part of the collapse area is getting larger and the more cracks are increasing,which gradually evolved into the unstable slope of Jianshanying.The unstable slope of Jianshanying is in the stage of constant velocity creep at present,and its displacement is greatly affected by coal mining.The fitting degree of the predicted data obtained by the displacement prediction model and the measured data is 0.999.It can be seen that the prediction model obtained by time series analysis method can well predict the displacement change of unstable slope in Jianshanying.